Eight Deck Shoe

Simulation Results

Discussion

I'm really surprised of the low performance of the 8-deck scenario. What was the penetration you're using? You're using 1.5 decks for 6 deck runs, right? So I would expect you should use 2 decks for the 8 deck sims so that the ratio is the same. Just wanted to make sure. --BlackAction 17:40, 16 September 2008 (PDT)

Penetration in Sims

The penetration that I've been using in all the simulations is 75% of the shoe +/- 10 cards (uniformally distributed). This is implemented in the Game::checkAndFillShoe method. It might be worth considering expanding the randomness of penetration for 8 deck shoes, put it is probably still fairly accurate.

The reason why the 8 Deck shoe has poor performance isn't due to significantly lower expectation. The larger problem is that our average bet amount goes way down - which signifies that we aren't getting to higher counts as often as 6 Deck. --Thingsgetdumb 03:49, 17 September 2008 (PDT)

Actually I'm willing to bet that the reason is because the EB and Exit counts are different for 8 deck. I think the distribution of counts is wider when the deck is over; therefore, you should get equally lower and higher counts vs the 6 deck case. The KO book probably has the 8-deck exit values.

I think a conversion would be something like (multiply everything by 8/6=1.333)

Exit:

after 1.333 decks, exit if <= (-6+(4-6)*1.333)=-9

after 2.666 decks, exit if <= (-6+(8-5)*1.333)=-2

after 4 decks, exit if <= (-6+(12-4)*1.333)=5

I think I would squeeze it into:

after 2 decks, exit if <= -5

after 4 decks, exit if <= 5

Anyway, probably not worth looking into much further.--BlackAction 16:04, 17 September 2008 (PDT)

Actually I just realized that the differences from the exit count and average count would have to be multiplied by something like sqrt(8/6) since you have a higher count variance for 8 deck, so, exit after 2 decks is probably -6, and after 4 decks is 4. Now I can sleep. --BlackAction 16:08, 17 September 2008 (PDT)