Super Betting
Super betting is a single count extension to Kelly Betting bet variation. Instead of placing the maximum bet at a count of 26 (IRC of 2), the bet spread is increased even higher for counts >= 30. The bet variation remains the same as before with the exception of the following rule that takes precedence:
Single Hand Strategy
Count >= 30: 12 units
Multihand Strategy
Count >= 30: 10 units
Performance Results
The following figure shows the expected performance gain due to super betting.
By merely extending Kelly Betting higher into the count, we increase our expectation while continuing to minimize the standard deviation. For multi-hand play, the expectation increases by 0.07% while the single-hand expectation increases by 0.06%. This is expected to bring in an extra $250 to $350 in a weekend trip for single-hand and multi-hand play, respectively.
Discussion
Sims to Run
Hey if you get a chance, here are the sims you should run (in order of importance). Include EB for all of them:
a) 8D S17 (IRC=-6)
b) 6D S17 w/ Super Betting (SB) -- Count of >=30, 2x$250, 1x$300 (I don't think your sim takes into account the later, but it's a good single hand equivalent)
b) 8D H17 (IRC=-6) (we probably won't play this... worth noting. We'll basically have stats for most multi-deck tables with our strategy)
Have fun at the conference. --BlackAction 21:51, 9 September 2008 (PDT)
Re: Sims to Run
See the content above for the performance results using Super Betting (SB).
As for the other results:
--Thingsgetdumb 17:21, 16 September 2008 (PDT)
Re: Sims to Run
Nice results. That's good we get a good increase of over 2% from a mean/std perspective for SB. That's better than the 0.9% increase we get from EB. It still doesn't beat the 10.5% increase we get from multi-hand betting. I think that's been our biggest accomplishment.
Here's my pros & con's for SB. Modify/add as needed.
Pros
- Increase mean/std of ~2%. (This is the most important)
- Increased earnings
- Increased probability of winning
- A bet of 10 units adds another transfer bet point at 30 (this is minute - and probably only affects me since I have some rare playing decisions in the 30s (up to 37!))
- I don't think going from $200 to $250 has as much of an impact as, say, $250 to $300. We get the benefit of psychological pricing
- Although we are increasing the betting cap, we're maintaining the slope (bet-per-expectation). So although we're doing a 10 unit cap, these bets are less likely to occur since they're at counts of >= 30. I looked at the statistics and >=30 counts occur 35% of the time you get >=26 counts. According to some count distribution stats I ran a while ago, we'll each get on average 4-5 shoes that go to 26 and beyond for our 24 hour trip (I don't think this takes into account exit strategy which increases the number of high count shoes). Anyway, with 4-5 shoes of 26 and over this correlates to 1-2 shoes with 30 over. Maybe 2-3 with exit strategy (?). So I don't think that's really often enough to arouse suspicion.
Cons
- Increased heat due to increased bet spread 8:1 --> 10:1
- Increased ROR (more money needs to be brought)
- We have to fumble around for $250 (four chips) which doesn't look as natural as betting 2 blacks.
- Increased variance means increased trips to the cashier and increased pulling out of money from the wallet.
So my opinion is that the Pros beat the Cons. What we can do is limit all bets so that if we're forced to do single hand we stick with one $250 bet at >= 26 (as well as the table hopping incomer). --BlackAction 17:40, 16 September 2008 (PDT)
Count Distribution
Side note: I remember you sent me a distribution of counts. Do these calcs include exit strategy? I would expect a "stepping" of the PDF at 0, 5, and 10, since we exit at these counts.
Eight Deck Shoe Performance
On a separate note, I'm really surprised of the low performance of the 8-deck scenario. What was the penetration you're using? You're using 1.5 decks for 6 deck runs, right? So I would expect you should use 2 decks for the 8 deck sims so that the ratio is the same. Just wanted to make sure. --BlackAction 17:40, 16 September 2008 (PDT)
See Eight Deck Shoe.